Saturday 5 May 2018, 17:00
Vicarage Road
Full time
36%
30%
34%
Home win
36.3%
Draw
30.1%
Away win
33.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 36.3% | 2.75 | — | — |
| Draw | 30.1% | 3.32 | — | — |
| Newcastle | 33.6% | 2.98 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.0% | 9.08 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 32.7% | 3.06 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 19.7% | 5.08 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.2% | 12.26 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 91.8% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
| No | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford / Draw | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Watford / Newcastle | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Draw / Newcastle | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.0
|
10.6
|
6.3
|
2.3
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
11.1
|
14.1
|
7.4
|
2.7
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.0
|
7.8
|
4.3
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
2.7
|
3.0
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.8
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2022
Newcastle
1-1
Watford
Sep 2021
Watford
1-1
Newcastle
Jul 2020
Watford
2-1
Newcastle
Aug 2019
Newcastle
1-1
Watford
Dec 2018
Watford
1-1
Newcastle
Nov 2018
Newcastle
1-0
Watford
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.