Sunday 15 April 2018, 15:30
St James' Park
Full time
28%
27%
45%
Home win
28.3%
Draw
26.9%
Away win
44.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 28.3% | 3.54 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.9% | 3.72 | — | — |
| Arsenal | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.6% | 13.17 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 24.5% | 4.08 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 28.1% | 3.56 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 13.4% | 7.47 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 86.6% | 1.15 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| No | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle / Draw | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Newcastle / Arsenal | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Draw / Arsenal | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.6
|
9.7
|
7.9
|
4.0
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
| 1 |
7.2
|
12.8
|
9.2
|
4.7
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
4.6
|
7.0
|
5.3
|
2.7
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
1.8
|
2.7
|
2.1
|
1.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.5
|
0.8
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Arsenal
1-0
Newcastle
Sep 2025
Newcastle
1-2
Arsenal
May 2025
Arsenal
1-0
Newcastle
Nov 2024
Newcastle
1-0
Arsenal
Feb 2024
Arsenal
4-1
Newcastle
Nov 2023
Newcastle
1-0
Arsenal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.