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Sunday 8 April 2018, 16:15 Emirates Stadium Full time
69% 19% 12%
Home win
69.3%
Draw
19.2%
Away win
11.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 69.3% 1.44
Draw 19.2% 5.22
Southampton 11.5% 8.67

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.7% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.3% 18.93
Over 1.5 81.2% 1.23
Under 1.5 18.8% 5.33
Over 2.5 58.6% 1.71
Under 2.5 41.4% 2.42
Over 3.5 36.3% 2.76
Under 3.5 63.7% 1.57
Over 4.5 19.2% 5.21
Under 4.5 80.8% 1.24

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.0% 2.00
No 50.0% 2.00

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 88.5% 1.13
Arsenal / Southampton 80.8% 1.24
Draw / Southampton 30.7% 3.26

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.3
3.3
1.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
10.1
9.1
3.5
0.9
0.2
0.0
2
11.9
9.6
3.9
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
8.9
7.2
2.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
5.0
4.0
1.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
2.2
1.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.