Saturday 3 March 2018, 17:00
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
51%
27%
22%
Home win
51.1%
Draw
27.2%
Away win
21.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.2% | 3.67 | — | — |
| Stoke City | 21.6% | 4.62 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.6% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.4% | 10.59 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 3.42 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 23.0% | 4.35 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.1% | 9.90 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.9% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
| No | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Southampton / Stoke City | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Draw / Stoke City | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.4
|
7.2
|
3.6
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
12.6
|
12.9
|
5.5
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.2
|
9.3
|
4.2
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.2
|
4.7
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.0
|
1.8
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Sep 2017
Stoke City
2-1
Southampton
May 2017
Southampton
0-1
Stoke City
Dec 2016
Stoke City
0-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.