Saturday 24 February 2018, 17:00
Turf Moor
Full time
41%
33%
25%
Home win
41.4%
Draw
33.5%
Away win
25.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Draw | 33.5% | 2.99 | — | — |
| Southampton | 25.1% | 3.98 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 16.6% | 6.02 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 28.1% | 3.56 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 11.6% | 8.65 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.0% | 25.27 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 96.0% | 1.04 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36.1% | 2.77 | — | — |
| No | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Burnley / Southampton | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Draw / Southampton | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
16.6
|
11.4
|
4.7
|
1.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
16.2
|
13.9
|
5.0
|
1.3
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
9.1
|
7.0
|
2.7
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
3.3
|
2.5
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.9
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2022
Burnley
2-0
Southampton
Oct 2021
Southampton
2-2
Burnley
Apr 2021
Southampton
3-2
Burnley
Sep 2020
Burnley
0-1
Southampton
Feb 2020
Southampton
1-2
Burnley
Aug 2019
Burnley
3-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.