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Wednesday 31 January 2018, 21:45 St. Mary's Stadium Full time
48% 32% 20%
Home win
48.2%
Draw
31.7%
Away win
20.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton 48.2% 2.07
Draw 31.7% 3.16
Brighton 20.1% 4.97

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 84.4% 1.18
Under 0.5 15.6% 6.41
Over 1.5 57.6% 1.74
Under 1.5 42.4% 2.36
Over 2.5 29.8% 3.35
Under 2.5 70.2% 1.42
Over 3.5 12.7% 7.90
Under 3.5 87.3% 1.14
Over 4.5 4.5% 22.39
Under 4.5 95.5% 1.05

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 35.8% 2.80
No 64.2% 1.56

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton / Draw 79.9% 1.25
Southampton / Brighton 68.3% 1.46
Draw / Brighton 51.8% 1.93

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
15.6
9.5
3.5
0.8
0.1
0.0
1
17.4
13.2
4.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
2
11.1
7.6
2.6
0.6
0.1
0.0
3
4.5
3.1
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
1.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.