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Saturday 13 January 2018, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
40% 28% 32%
Home win
40.4%
Draw
28.0%
Away win
31.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 40.4% 2.47
Draw 28.0% 3.57
Southampton 31.6% 3.17

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.5% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.5% 11.79
Over 1.5 73.3% 1.37
Under 1.5 26.7% 3.74
Over 2.5 47.2% 2.12
Under 2.5 52.8% 1.89
Over 3.5 25.6% 3.91
Under 3.5 74.4% 1.34
Over 4.5 11.7% 8.54
Under 4.5 88.3% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.7% 1.90
No 47.3% 2.11

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 68.4% 1.46
Watford / Southampton 72.0% 1.39
Draw / Southampton 59.6% 1.68

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.5
8.4
5.4
2.1
0.6
0.2
1
9.9
13.4
7.5
3.0
0.9
0.2
2
7.3
8.7
5.1
2.0
0.6
0.1
3
3.3
4.0
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
4
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.