Saturday 16 December 2017, 17:00
Stamford Bridge
Full time
74%
18%
8%
Home win
73.5%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
8.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Draw | 18.1% | 5.52 | — | — |
| Southampton | 8.4% | 11.98 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.6% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.4% | 15.60 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 22.2% | 4.51 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 31.4% | 3.19 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 15.6% | 6.40 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 84.4% | 1.19 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
| No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea / Draw | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Chelsea / Southampton | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Draw / Southampton | 26.5% | 3.78 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.4
|
3.2
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
12.6
|
8.5
|
2.5
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
14.5
|
8.9
|
2.7
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
10.7
|
6.6
|
2.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
5.9
|
3.6
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.6
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Chelsea
4-0
Southampton
Dec 2024
Southampton
1-5
Chelsea
Feb 2023
Chelsea
0-1
Southampton
Aug 2022
Southampton
2-1
Chelsea
Apr 2022
Southampton
0-6
Chelsea
Oct 2021
Chelsea
3-1
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.