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Wednesday 29 November 2017, 22:00 Etihad Stadium Full time
78% 15% 7%
Home win
78.1%
Draw
15.1%
Away win
6.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 78.1% 1.28
Draw 15.1% 6.62
Southampton 6.8% 14.67

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.4% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.6% 21.56
Over 1.5 82.8% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.2% 5.81
Over 2.5 61.2% 1.63
Under 2.5 38.8% 2.58
Over 3.5 38.9% 2.57
Under 3.5 61.1% 1.64
Over 4.5 21.3% 4.70
Under 4.5 78.7% 1.27

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 43.7% 2.29
No 56.3% 1.77

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 93.2% 1.07
Manchester City / Southampton 84.9% 1.18
Draw / Southampton 21.9% 4.56

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.6
2.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
10.3
7.2
2.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
13.5
8.6
2.7
0.6
0.1
0.0
3
11.4
7.2
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
7.2
4.6
1.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
5
3.6
2.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.