Saturday 21 October 2017, 17:00
Etihad Stadium
Full time
76%
17%
8%
Home win
75.6%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
7.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Draw | 16.6% | 6.03 | — | — |
| Burnley | 7.8% | 12.82 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.7% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.3% | 18.96 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 19.0% | 5.26 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 36.0% | 2.78 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 19.0% | 5.26 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
| No | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 92.2% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Burnley | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 24.4% | 4.10 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.3
|
2.7
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
11.1
|
7.9
|
2.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.7
|
8.9
|
2.9
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
10.9
|
7.1
|
2.3
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
6.5
|
4.2
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.1
|
2.0
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Burnley
0-1
Manchester City
Sep 2025
Manchester City
5-1
Burnley
Jan 2024
Manchester City
3-1
Burnley
Aug 2023
Burnley
0-3
Manchester City
Apr 2022
Burnley
0-2
Manchester City
Oct 2021
Manchester City
2-0
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.