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Saturday 14 October 2017, 17:00 Etihad Stadium Full time
78% 15% 7%
Home win
78.4%
Draw
14.7%
Away win
6.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 78.4% 1.28
Draw 14.7% 6.80
Stoke City 6.9% 14.56

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.8% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.2% 23.66
Over 1.5 84.1% 1.19
Under 1.5 15.9% 6.28
Over 2.5 63.3% 1.58
Under 2.5 36.7% 2.72
Over 3.5 41.1% 2.43
Under 3.5 58.9% 1.70
Over 4.5 23.1% 4.34
Under 4.5 76.9% 1.30

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.4% 2.20
No 54.6% 1.83

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 93.1% 1.07
Manchester City / Stoke City 85.3% 1.17
Draw / Stoke City 21.6% 4.63

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.2
2.2
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
9.5
7.0
2.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
12.9
8.6
2.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
3
11.2
7.4
2.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
7.3
4.8
1.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
3.8
2.5
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.