Saturday 14 October 2017, 17:00
Etihad Stadium
Full time
78%
15%
7%
Home win
78.4%
Draw
14.7%
Away win
6.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Draw | 14.7% | 6.80 | — | — |
| Stoke City | 6.9% | 14.56 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.8% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.2% | 23.66 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 15.9% | 6.28 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 36.7% | 2.72 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 23.1% | 4.34 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
| No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 93.1% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Stoke City | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Draw / Stoke City | 21.6% | 4.63 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.2
|
2.2
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.5
|
7.0
|
2.2
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.9
|
8.6
|
2.9
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
11.2
|
7.4
|
2.5
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
7.3
|
4.8
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.8
|
2.5
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2018
Stoke City
0-2
Manchester City
Mar 2017
Manchester City
0-0
Stoke City
Aug 2016
Stoke City
1-4
Manchester City
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.