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Wednesday 8 March 2017, 22:00 Etihad Stadium Full time
68% 19% 13%
Home win
67.8%
Draw
19.3%
Away win
13.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 67.8% 1.48
Draw 19.3% 5.19
Stoke City 13.0% 7.72

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.3% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.7% 21.46
Over 1.5 83.2% 1.20
Under 1.5 16.8% 5.94
Over 2.5 61.6% 1.62
Under 2.5 38.4% 2.61
Over 3.5 39.4% 2.54
Under 3.5 60.6% 1.65
Over 4.5 21.6% 4.62
Under 4.5 78.4% 1.28

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.0% 1.85
No 46.0% 2.17

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 87.0% 1.15
Manchester City / Stoke City 80.7% 1.24
Draw / Stoke City 32.2% 3.10

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.7
3.2
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
8.9
9.1
3.9
1.2
0.3
0.0
2
10.8
9.7
4.4
1.3
0.3
0.1
3
8.2
7.4
3.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
4
4.6
4.2
1.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
5
2.1
1.9
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.