Sunday 5 February 2017, 15:30
Etihad Stadium
Full time
82%
11%
7%
Home win
81.8%
Draw
11.3%
Away win
6.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Draw | 11.3% | 8.87 | — | — |
| Swansea | 6.9% | 14.40 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98.5% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 1.5% | 64.60 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 93.4% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 6.7% | 15.04 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 19.1% | 5.23 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 36.8% | 2.71 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| No | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 93.1% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Swansea | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Draw / Swansea | 18.2% | 5.49 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
1.5
|
1.0
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
4.1
|
4.5
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
7.3
|
7.2
|
3.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
8.2
|
8.1
|
4.0
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
6.9
|
6.8
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
4.6
|
4.6
|
2.3
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2018
Manchester City
5-0
Swansea
Dec 2017
Swansea
0-4
Manchester City
Sep 2016
Swansea
1-3
Manchester City
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.