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Sunday 5 February 2017, 15:30 Etihad Stadium Full time
82% 11% 7%
Home win
81.8%
Draw
11.3%
Away win
6.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 81.8% 1.22
Draw 11.3% 8.87
Swansea 6.9% 14.40

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.5% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.5% 64.60
Over 1.5 93.4% 1.07
Under 1.5 6.7% 15.04
Over 2.5 80.9% 1.24
Under 2.5 19.1% 5.23
Over 3.5 63.2% 1.58
Under 3.5 36.8% 2.71
Over 4.5 43.9% 2.28
Under 4.5 56.1% 1.78

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.8% 1.64
No 39.2% 2.55

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 93.1% 1.07
Manchester City / Swansea 88.7% 1.13
Draw / Swansea 18.2% 5.49

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.5
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
1
4.1
4.5
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.0
2
7.3
7.2
3.6
1.2
0.3
0.1
3
8.2
8.1
4.0
1.3
0.3
0.1
4
6.9
6.8
3.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
5
4.6
4.6
2.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.