Sunday 22 April 2018, 18:30
Etihad Stadium
Full time
86%
10%
4%
Home win
85.7%
Draw
10.3%
Away win
4.0%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Draw | 10.3% | 9.70 | — | — |
| Swansea | 4.0% | 24.77 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97.2% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 2.8% | 35.80 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 11.5% | 8.69 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 30.9% | 3.23 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
| No | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 96.0% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Swansea | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Draw / Swansea | 14.3% | 6.97 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
2.8
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
7.5
|
4.9
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.0
|
7.1
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
12.3
|
7.3
|
2.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
9.5
|
5.7
|
1.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
5.9
|
3.5
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Dec 2017
Swansea
0-4
Manchester City
Feb 2017
Manchester City
2-1
Swansea
Sep 2016
Swansea
1-3
Manchester City
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.