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Wednesday 13 December 2017, 21:45 Liberty Stadium Full time
11% 19% 69%
Home win
11.3%
Draw
19.2%
Away win
69.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea 11.3% 8.83
Draw 19.2% 5.21
Manchester City 69.5% 1.44

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.6% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.4% 18.46
Over 1.5 80.8% 1.24
Under 1.5 19.2% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.0% 1.72
Under 2.5 42.0% 2.38
Over 3.5 35.6% 2.81
Under 3.5 64.4% 1.55
Over 4.5 18.7% 5.34
Under 4.5 81.3% 1.23

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.3% 2.03
No 50.7% 1.97

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea / Draw 30.5% 3.28
Swansea / Manchester City 80.8% 1.24
Draw / Manchester City 88.7% 1.13

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.4
10.4
12.1
9.0
5.0
2.2
1
3.4
9.1
9.6
7.1
4.0
1.8
2
1.5
3.4
3.8
2.8
1.6
0.7
3
0.4
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.2
4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.