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Saturday 7 April 2018, 19:30 Etihad Stadium Full time
53% 26% 21%
Home win
53.1%
Draw
26.3%
Away win
20.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 53.1% 1.88
Draw 26.3% 3.81
Manchester United 20.6% 4.84

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.4% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.7% 11.56
Over 1.5 72.6% 1.38
Under 1.5 27.4% 3.66
Over 2.5 46.5% 2.15
Under 2.5 53.5% 1.87
Over 3.5 24.9% 4.01
Under 3.5 75.1% 1.33
Over 4.5 11.3% 8.83
Under 4.5 88.7% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.8% 2.05
No 51.2% 1.95

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 79.4% 1.26
Manchester City / Manchester United 73.7% 1.36
Draw / Manchester United 46.9% 2.13

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.6
6.6
3.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
1
12.1
12.5
5.4
1.6
0.4
0.1
2
10.4
9.5
4.4
1.3
0.3
0.1
3
5.6
5.1
2.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
2.3
2.1
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.