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Saturday 14 January 2017, 17:00 Liberty Stadium Full time
0–4
HT 0–1
15% 18% 67%
Home win
15.1%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
66.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea 15.1% 6.64
Draw 18.1% 5.53
Arsenal 66.9% 1.50

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.1% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.9% 34.77
Over 1.5 88.9% 1.12
Under 1.5 11.1% 9.03
Over 2.5 71.7% 1.40
Under 2.5 28.3% 3.53
Over 3.5 50.8% 1.97
Under 3.5 49.2% 2.03
Over 4.5 31.5% 3.17
Under 4.5 68.5% 1.46

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 63.9% 1.57
No 36.1% 2.77

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea / Draw 33.1% 3.02
Swansea / Arsenal 81.9% 1.22
Draw / Arsenal 84.9% 1.18

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.9
5.8
7.9
6.7
4.3
2.2
1
2.4
7.7
9.2
7.8
5.0
2.5
2
1.7
4.2
5.4
4.6
2.9
1.5
3
0.6
1.6
2.1
1.8
1.1
0.6
4
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.2
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.