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Tuesday 13 December 2016, 21:45 Goodison Park Full time
2–1
HT 1–1
27% 25% 48%
Home win
27.3%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
47.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Everton 27.3% 3.66
Draw 24.9% 4.02
Arsenal 47.8% 2.09

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.4% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.6% 17.82
Over 1.5 80.8% 1.24
Under 1.5 19.2% 5.21
Over 2.5 57.8% 1.73
Under 2.5 42.2% 2.37
Over 3.5 35.4% 2.83
Under 3.5 64.6% 1.55
Over 4.5 18.5% 5.39
Under 4.5 81.5% 1.23

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.8% 1.67
No 40.2% 2.49

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Everton / Draw 52.2% 1.92
Everton / Arsenal 75.1% 1.33
Draw / Arsenal 72.7% 1.38

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.6
8.0
7.5
4.3
1.9
0.7
1
5.6
11.6
9.5
5.5
2.4
0.8
2
4.0
6.9
6.0
3.5
1.5
0.5
3
1.7
2.9
2.5
1.5
0.6
0.2
4
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.