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Saturday 19 November 2016, 14:30 Old Trafford Full time
32% 26% 42%
Home win
31.9%
Draw
26.3%
Away win
41.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United 31.9% 3.13
Draw 26.3% 3.80
Arsenal 41.8% 2.39

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.4% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.6% 15.26
Over 1.5 78.2% 1.28
Under 1.5 21.8% 4.60
Over 2.5 54.0% 1.85
Under 2.5 46.0% 2.17
Over 3.5 31.7% 3.16
Under 3.5 68.3% 1.46
Over 4.5 15.8% 6.31
Under 4.5 84.2% 1.19

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 57.9% 1.73
No 42.1% 2.37

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United / Draw 58.2% 1.72
Manchester United / Arsenal 73.7% 1.36
Draw / Arsenal 68.1% 1.47

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.6
8.2
6.8
3.5
1.3
0.4
1
7.0
12.4
9.0
4.6
1.7
0.5
2
5.0
7.7
5.9
3.0
1.1
0.3
3
2.2
3.4
2.6
1.3
0.5
0.2
4
0.7
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.1
5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.