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Saturday 29 October 2016, 14:30 Stadium of Light Full time
1–4
HT 0–1
17% 23% 60%
Home win
17.2%
Draw
23.3%
Away win
59.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sunderland 17.2% 5.83
Draw 23.3% 4.30
Arsenal 59.6% 1.68

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.3% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.7% 15.03
Over 1.5 77.7% 1.29
Under 1.5 22.3% 4.48
Over 2.5 53.3% 1.88
Under 2.5 46.7% 2.14
Over 3.5 31.0% 3.22
Under 3.5 69.0% 1.45
Over 4.5 15.4% 6.50
Under 4.5 84.6% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.6% 1.94
No 48.4% 2.07

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sunderland / Draw 40.4% 2.47
Sunderland / Arsenal 76.7% 1.30
Draw / Arsenal 82.8% 1.21

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.7
10.8
10.8
6.8
3.2
1.2
1
4.9
11.1
9.9
6.2
2.9
1.1
2
2.5
4.8
4.5
2.9
1.4
0.5
3
0.8
1.5
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.2
4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.