Sunday 2 October 2016, 18:30
Turf Moor
Full time
19%
24%
56%
Home win
19.5%
Draw
24.4%
Away win
56.1%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 19.5% | 5.13 | — | — |
| Draw | 24.4% | 4.10 | — | — |
| Arsenal | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.0% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.0% | 14.37 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 23.1% | 4.34 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 30.0% | 3.33 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 14.7% | 6.81 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| No | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Burnley / Arsenal | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Draw / Arsenal | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.0
|
10.7
|
10.2
|
6.1
|
2.7
|
1.0
|
| 1 |
5.4
|
11.6
|
9.8
|
5.9
|
2.6
|
0.9
|
| 2 |
3.0
|
5.3
|
4.8
|
2.9
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
| 3 |
1.0
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
0.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Arsenal
1-0
Burnley
Nov 2025
Burnley
0-2
Arsenal
Feb 2024
Burnley
0-5
Arsenal
Nov 2023
Arsenal
3-1
Burnley
Jan 2022
Arsenal
0-0
Burnley
Sep 2021
Burnley
0-1
Arsenal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.