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Saturday 24 September 2016, 19:30 Emirates Stadium Full time
3–0
HT 3–0
50% 24% 26%
Home win
49.8%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
26.5%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 49.8% 2.01
Draw 23.7% 4.22
Chelsea 26.5% 3.77

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.4% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.6% 21.57
Over 1.5 83.6% 1.20
Under 1.5 16.4% 6.11
Over 2.5 62.2% 1.61
Under 2.5 37.8% 2.65
Over 3.5 40.0% 2.50
Under 3.5 60.0% 1.67
Over 4.5 22.1% 4.52
Under 4.5 77.9% 1.28

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 62.9% 1.59
No 37.1% 2.70

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 73.5% 1.36
Arsenal / Chelsea 76.3% 1.31
Draw / Chelsea 50.2% 1.99

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.6
4.8
3.6
1.6
0.5
0.1
1
7.0
10.7
6.7
3.0
1.0
0.3
2
7.1
9.5
6.3
2.8
0.9
0.2
3
4.5
6.0
4.0
1.8
0.6
0.2
4
2.1
2.8
1.9
0.8
0.3
0.1
5
0.8
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.