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Friday 16 September 2016, 22:00 Stamford Bridge Full time
1–2
HT 0–2
35% 21% 44%
Home win
34.7%
Draw
20.9%
Away win
44.4%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 34.7% 2.88
Draw 20.9% 4.77
Liverpool 44.4% 2.25

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.0% 1.02
Under 0.5 2.0% 50.63
Over 1.5 92.3% 1.08
Under 1.5 7.7% 13.01
Over 2.5 78.4% 1.28
Under 2.5 21.6% 4.62
Over 3.5 59.6% 1.68
Under 3.5 40.4% 2.48
Over 4.5 40.1% 2.49
Under 4.5 59.9% 1.67

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 76.7% 1.30
No 23.3% 4.29

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 55.6% 1.80
Chelsea / Liverpool 79.1% 1.27
Draw / Liverpool 65.3% 1.53

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.0
3.1
3.8
2.8
1.5
0.7
1
2.7
7.2
7.4
5.5
3.0
1.3
2
3.0
6.6
7.2
5.3
2.9
1.3
3
1.9
4.3
4.7
3.5
1.9
0.8
4
0.9
2.1
2.3
1.7
0.9
0.4
5
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.2
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.