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Sunday 11 September 2016, 18:00 Liberty Stadium Full time
2–2
HT 0–1
15% 19% 66%
Home win
15.3%
Draw
19.0%
Away win
65.8%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea 15.3% 6.55
Draw 19.0% 5.27
Chelsea 65.8% 1.52

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.5% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.5% 28.76
Over 1.5 87.0% 1.15
Under 1.5 13.0% 7.67
Over 2.5 68.0% 1.47
Under 2.5 32.0% 3.13
Over 3.5 46.5% 2.15
Under 3.5 53.5% 1.87
Over 4.5 27.6% 3.63
Under 4.5 72.4% 1.38

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 61.2% 1.63
No 38.8% 2.58

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea / Draw 34.2% 2.92
Swansea / Chelsea 81.0% 1.23
Draw / Chelsea 84.7% 1.18

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.5
6.7
8.7
7.0
4.2
2.0
1
2.8
8.4
9.6
7.7
4.6
2.2
2
1.8
4.4
5.3
4.2
2.5
1.2
3
0.7
1.6
1.9
1.5
0.9
0.4
4
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.