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Saturday 25 February 2017, 17:00 Stamford Bridge Full time
3–1
HT 1–1
86% 10% 4%
Home win
85.8%
Draw
10.0%
Away win
4.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 85.8% 1.17
Draw 10.0% 9.97
Swansea 4.2% 23.88

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.6% 1.02
Under 0.5 2.4% 41.27
Over 1.5 89.8% 1.11
Under 1.5 10.2% 9.84
Over 2.5 73.7% 1.36
Under 2.5 26.3% 3.80
Over 3.5 53.4% 1.87
Under 3.5 46.6% 2.15
Over 4.5 33.9% 2.95
Under 4.5 66.1% 1.51

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.9% 2.18
No 54.1% 1.85

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 95.8% 1.04
Chelsea / Swansea 90.0% 1.11
Draw / Swansea 14.2% 7.04

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.4
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
6.6
4.7
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
2
11.0
7.1
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
11.7
7.5
2.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
9.3
6.0
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
5.9
3.8
1.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.