Sunday 12 February 2017, 15:30
Turf Moor
Full time
14%
24%
62%
Home win
14.3%
Draw
24.1%
Away win
61.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 14.3% | 6.99 | — | — |
| Draw | 24.1% | 4.15 | — | — |
| Chelsea | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.1% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.9% | 11.21 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 28.3% | 3.54 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 24.0% | 4.16 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.8% | 9.29 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.2% | 1.12 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
| No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 38.4% | 2.60 | — | — |
| Burnley / Chelsea | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Draw / Chelsea | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.9
|
14.0
|
12.9
|
7.6
|
3.3
|
1.2
|
| 1 |
5.4
|
11.3
|
9.4
|
5.5
|
2.4
|
0.9
|
| 2 |
2.2
|
3.9
|
3.4
|
2.0
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
0.5
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Chelsea
1-1
Burnley
Nov 2025
Burnley
0-2
Chelsea
Mar 2024
Chelsea
2-2
Burnley
Oct 2023
Burnley
1-4
Chelsea
Mar 2022
Burnley
0-4
Chelsea
Nov 2021
Chelsea
1-1
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.