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Saturday 4 February 2017, 14:30 Stamford Bridge Full time
3–1
HT 1–0
58% 23% 18%
Home win
58.5%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
18.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 58.5% 1.71
Draw 23.4% 4.28
Arsenal 18.2% 5.50

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.6% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.4% 15.71
Over 1.5 78.5% 1.27
Under 1.5 21.5% 4.65
Over 2.5 54.4% 1.84
Under 2.5 45.6% 2.19
Over 3.5 32.1% 3.11
Under 3.5 67.9% 1.47
Over 4.5 16.2% 6.19
Under 4.5 83.8% 1.19

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.2% 1.88
No 46.8% 2.14

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 81.8% 1.22
Chelsea / Arsenal 76.6% 1.30
Draw / Arsenal 41.5% 2.41

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.4
4.9
2.7
0.9
0.2
0.0
1
10.2
11.1
5.1
1.6
0.4
0.1
2
10.3
9.9
4.8
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
6.5
6.3
3.0
1.0
0.2
0.0
4
3.1
3.0
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
1.2
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.