Skip to content
Saturday 31 December 2016, 17:00 Stamford Bridge Full time
4–2
HT 1–0
79% 15% 6%
Home win
79.1%
Draw
15.2%
Away win
5.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 79.1% 1.26
Draw 15.2% 6.59
Stoke City 5.8% 17.37

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.3% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.7% 17.52
Over 1.5 79.5% 1.26
Under 1.5 20.5% 4.88
Over 2.5 56.2% 1.78
Under 2.5 43.8% 2.28
Over 3.5 33.8% 2.95
Under 3.5 66.2% 1.51
Over 4.5 17.4% 5.74
Under 4.5 82.6% 1.21

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 37.3% 2.68
No 62.7% 1.60

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 94.2% 1.06
Chelsea / Stoke City 84.8% 1.18
Draw / Stoke City 20.9% 4.77

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.7
2.4
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
12.4
7.1
1.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
2
15.5
8.1
2.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
3
12.5
6.5
1.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
4
7.5
3.9
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
3.6
1.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.