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Saturday 10 December 2016, 17:00 Emirates Stadium Full time
3–1
HT 1–1
75% 16% 9%
Home win
74.6%
Draw
16.1%
Away win
9.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 74.6% 1.34
Draw 16.1% 6.20
Stoke City 9.3% 10.77

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.2% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.8% 26.05
Over 1.5 85.5% 1.17
Under 1.5 14.5% 6.89
Over 2.5 65.6% 1.52
Under 2.5 34.4% 2.91
Over 3.5 43.7% 2.29
Under 3.5 56.3% 1.78
Over 4.5 25.2% 3.97
Under 4.5 74.8% 1.34

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.9% 1.92
No 48.1% 2.08

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 90.7% 1.10
Arsenal / Stoke City 83.9% 1.19
Draw / Stoke City 25.4% 3.93

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.8
2.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
8.3
7.6
2.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
2
11.2
9.1
3.7
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
9.6
7.8
3.2
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
6.1
5.0
2.0
0.6
0.1
0.0
5
3.1
2.6
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.