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Monday 31 October 2016, 22:00 bet365 Stadium Full time
3–1
HT 1–1
42% 28% 30%
Home win
41.7%
Draw
28.3%
Away win
30.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City 41.7% 2.40
Draw 28.3% 3.53
Swansea 30.0% 3.33

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.0% 1.10
Under 0.5 9.0% 11.08
Over 1.5 71.9% 1.39
Under 1.5 28.1% 3.56
Over 2.5 45.5% 2.20
Under 2.5 54.5% 1.83
Over 3.5 24.1% 4.15
Under 3.5 75.9% 1.32
Over 4.5 10.8% 9.26
Under 4.5 89.2% 1.12

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.1% 1.96
No 48.9% 2.05

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City / Draw 70.0% 1.43
Stoke City / Swansea 71.7% 1.40
Draw / Swansea 58.3% 1.71

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.0
8.5
5.2
2.0
0.5
0.1
1
10.5
13.5
7.1
2.7
0.8
0.2
2
7.7
8.7
4.9
1.8
0.5
0.1
3
3.5
4.0
2.2
0.8
0.2
0.1
4
1.2
1.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.