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Sunday 2 October 2016, 14:00 Old Trafford Full time
82% 12% 6%
Home win
82.0%
Draw
11.6%
Away win
6.5%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United 82.0% 1.22
Draw 11.6% 8.65
Stoke City 6.5% 15.44

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.0% 1.02
Under 0.5 2.0% 50.92
Over 1.5 91.7% 1.09
Under 1.5 8.3% 12.10
Over 2.5 77.4% 1.29
Under 2.5 22.6% 4.43
Over 3.5 58.3% 1.72
Under 3.5 41.7% 2.40
Over 4.5 38.8% 2.58
Under 4.5 61.2% 1.63

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 56.4% 1.77
No 43.6% 2.29

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United / Draw 93.5% 1.07
Manchester United / Stoke City 88.4% 1.13
Draw / Stoke City 18.0% 5.54

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.0
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
5.1
5.0
2.1
0.6
0.1
0.0
2
8.6
7.6
3.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
9.3
8.1
3.6
1.0
0.2
0.0
4
7.4
6.5
2.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
5
4.8
4.2
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.