Sunday 2 October 2016, 14:00
Old Trafford
Full time
82%
12%
6%
Home win
82.0%
Draw
11.6%
Away win
6.5%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Draw | 11.6% | 8.65 | — | — |
| Stoke City | 6.5% | 15.44 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98.0% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 2.0% | 50.92 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 91.7% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 8.3% | 12.10 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 22.6% | 4.43 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 38.8% | 2.58 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| No | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United / Draw | 93.5% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Manchester United / Stoke City | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Draw / Stoke City | 18.0% | 5.54 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
2.0
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
5.1
|
5.0
|
2.1
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
8.6
|
7.6
|
3.3
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.3
|
8.1
|
3.6
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
7.4
|
6.5
|
2.9
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
4.8
|
4.2
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2018
Manchester United
3-0
Stoke City
Sep 2017
Stoke City
2-2
Manchester United
Jan 2017
Stoke City
1-1
Manchester United
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.