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Sunday 18 September 2016, 14:00 Vicarage Road Full time
Watford
3–1
HT 1–0
Manchester United
24% 24% 52%
Home win
24.3%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
51.8%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 24.3% 4.11 — —
Draw 23.9% 4.19 — —
Manchester United 51.8% 1.93 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.8% 1.05 — —
Under 0.5 5.2% 19.25 — —
Over 1.5 82.0% 1.22 — —
Under 1.5 18.0% 5.54 — —
Over 2.5 59.6% 1.68 — —
Under 2.5 40.4% 2.47 — —
Over 3.5 37.2% 2.69 — —
Under 3.5 62.8% 1.59 — —
Over 4.5 19.9% 5.02 — —
Under 4.5 80.1% 1.25 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.2% 1.66 — —
No 39.8% 2.51 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 48.2% 2.07 — —
Watford / Manchester United 76.1% 1.31 — —
Draw / Manchester United 75.7% 1.32 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.2
7.9
7.9
4.9
2.3
0.9
1
5.0
11.0
9.7
6.0
2.8
1.0
2
3.4
6.4
5.9
3.7
1.7
0.6
3
1.4
2.6
2.4
1.5
0.7
0.3
4
0.4
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Watford
D L L W
Manchester United
W W W L

Head to head

Feb 2022 Manchester United 0-0 Watford Nov 2021 Watford 4-1 Manchester United Feb 2020 Manchester United 3-0 Watford Dec 2019 Watford 2-0 Manchester United Mar 2019 Manchester United 2-1 Watford Sep 2018 Watford 1-2 Manchester United

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.