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Friday 19 August 2016, 22:00 Old Trafford Full time
24% 64% 11%
Home win
24.3%
Draw
64.5%
Away win
11.2%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United 24.3% 4.12
Draw 64.5% 1.55
Southampton 11.2% 8.89

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 39.2% 2.55
Under 0.5 60.8% 1.64
Over 1.5 9.2% 10.81
Under 1.5 90.8% 1.10
Over 2.5 1.4% 69.25
Under 2.5 98.6% 1.01
Over 3.5 0.2% 568.18
Under 3.5 99.8% 1.00
Over 4.5 0.0% 5,882.35
Under 4.5 100.0% 1.00

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 4.6% 21.79
No 95.4% 1.05

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United / Draw 88.8% 1.13
Manchester United / Southampton 35.5% 2.81
Draw / Southampton 75.7% 1.32

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
60.8
10.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
19.9
3.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
3.3
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.