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Saturday 15 September 2018, 19:30 Vicarage Road Full time
20% 26% 54%
Home win
20.0%
Draw
26.4%
Away win
53.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 20.0% 5.00
Draw 26.4% 3.79
Manchester United 53.6% 1.86

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.0% 1.10
Under 0.5 9.0% 11.11
Over 1.5 71.8% 1.39
Under 1.5 28.2% 3.54
Over 2.5 45.4% 2.20
Under 2.5 54.6% 1.83
Over 3.5 24.0% 4.16
Under 3.5 76.0% 1.32
Over 4.5 10.7% 9.30
Under 4.5 89.3% 1.12

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 47.6% 2.10
No 52.4% 1.91

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 46.4% 2.16
Watford / Manchester United 73.6% 1.36
Draw / Manchester United 80.0% 1.25

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.0
12.6
10.7
5.7
2.3
0.7
1
6.6
12.5
9.5
5.1
2.0
0.7
2
3.2
5.2
4.2
2.2
0.9
0.3
3
1.0
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.