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Saturday 11 August 2018, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
42% 29% 28%
Home win
42.5%
Draw
29.3%
Away win
28.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 42.5% 2.35
Draw 29.3% 3.42
Brighton 28.2% 3.54

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 89.6% 1.12
Under 0.5 10.4% 9.61
Over 1.5 68.6% 1.46
Under 1.5 31.4% 3.19
Over 2.5 41.5% 2.41
Under 2.5 58.5% 1.71
Over 3.5 20.9% 4.79
Under 3.5 79.1% 1.26
Over 4.5 8.9% 11.30
Under 4.5 91.1% 1.10

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 47.7% 2.10
No 52.3% 1.91

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 71.8% 1.39
Watford / Brighton 70.7% 1.41
Draw / Brighton 57.5% 1.74

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.4
9.1
5.1
1.7
0.4
0.1
1
11.9
13.8
6.6
2.3
0.6
0.1
2
8.3
8.5
4.4
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
3.7
3.7
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.