Wednesday 9 May 2018, 22:00
Etihad Stadium
Full time
83%
13%
5%
Home win
82.5%
Draw
12.6%
Away win
4.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Draw | 12.6% | 7.93 | — | — |
| Brighton | 4.9% | 20.49 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.0% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.0% | 24.74 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 15.6% | 6.42 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 36.0% | 2.78 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 23.7% | 4.23 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40.4% | 2.48 | — | — |
| No | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 95.1% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Brighton | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Draw / Brighton | 17.5% | 5.72 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.0
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.8
|
6.0
|
1.6
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.9
|
7.8
|
2.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
12.7
|
7.1
|
2.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
8.7
|
4.8
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
4.7
|
2.7
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Manchester City
1-1
Brighton
Aug 2025
Brighton
2-1
Manchester City
Mar 2025
Manchester City
2-2
Brighton
Nov 2024
Brighton
2-1
Manchester City
Apr 2024
Brighton
0-4
Manchester City
Oct 2023
Manchester City
2-1
Brighton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.