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Saturday 27 August 2016, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
1–3
HT 0–3
23% 70% 7%
Home win
22.9%
Draw
70.1%
Away win
7.0%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 22.9% 4.37
Draw 70.1% 1.43
Arsenal 7.0% 14.34

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 31.9% 3.13
Under 0.5 68.1% 1.47
Over 1.5 5.9% 16.96
Under 1.5 94.1% 1.06
Over 2.5 0.7% 139.08
Under 2.5 99.3% 1.01
Over 3.5 0.1% 1,470.59
Under 3.5 99.9% 1.00
Over 4.5 0.0% 20,000.00
Under 4.5 100.0% 1.00

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 2.4% 40.85
No 97.6% 1.03

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 93.0% 1.07
Watford / Arsenal 29.9% 3.35
Draw / Arsenal 77.1% 1.30

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
68.1
6.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
19.5
2.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
2.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.