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Monday 15 January 2018, 22:00 Old Trafford Full time
77% 16% 7%
Home win
76.9%
Draw
16.3%
Away win
6.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United 76.9% 1.30
Draw 16.3% 6.14
Stoke City 6.8% 14.76

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.2% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.8% 17.11
Over 1.5 79.2% 1.26
Under 1.5 20.8% 4.82
Over 2.5 55.8% 1.79
Under 2.5 44.2% 2.26
Over 3.5 33.4% 2.99
Under 3.5 66.6% 1.50
Over 4.5 17.1% 5.85
Under 4.5 82.9% 1.21

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 39.6% 2.53
No 60.4% 1.66

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester United / Draw 93.2% 1.07
Manchester United / Stoke City 83.7% 1.19
Draw / Stoke City 23.1% 4.34

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.8
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
12.3
7.6
2.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
14.9
8.5
2.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
11.7
6.6
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
6.9
3.9
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
3.2
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.