Monday 15 January 2018, 22:00
Old Trafford
Full time
77%
16%
7%
Home win
76.9%
Draw
16.3%
Away win
6.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Draw | 16.3% | 6.14 | — | — |
| Stoke City | 6.8% | 14.76 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.2% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.8% | 17.11 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 20.8% | 4.82 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 17.1% | 5.85 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 39.6% | 2.53 | — | — |
| No | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United / Draw | 93.2% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Manchester United / Stoke City | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Draw / Stoke City | 23.1% | 4.34 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.8
|
2.6
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
12.3
|
7.6
|
2.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
14.9
|
8.5
|
2.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
11.7
|
6.6
|
1.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
6.9
|
3.9
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.2
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Sep 2017
Stoke City
2-2
Manchester United
Jan 2017
Stoke City
1-1
Manchester United
Oct 2016
Manchester United
1-1
Stoke City
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.