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Monday 1 January 2018, 17:00 bet365 Stadium Full time
42% 29% 29%
Home win
42.4%
Draw
28.6%
Away win
29.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City 42.4% 2.36
Draw 28.6% 3.50
Newcastle 29.1% 3.44

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.6% 1.10
Under 0.5 9.4% 10.62
Over 1.5 70.9% 1.41
Under 1.5 29.1% 3.44
Over 2.5 44.3% 2.26
Under 2.5 55.7% 1.79
Over 3.5 23.1% 4.32
Under 3.5 76.9% 1.30
Over 4.5 10.2% 9.81
Under 4.5 89.8% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.0% 2.00
No 50.0% 2.00

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City / Draw 70.9% 1.41
Stoke City / Newcastle 71.4% 1.40
Draw / Newcastle 57.6% 1.74

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.4
8.6
5.1
1.8
0.5
0.1
1
11.0
13.6
6.9
2.5
0.7
0.1
2
8.0
8.7
4.7
1.7
0.5
0.1
3
3.6
4.0
2.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
1.2
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Newcastle goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.