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Tuesday 12 December 2017, 21:45 Turf Moor Full time
1–0
HT 0–0
49% 29% 22%
Home win
49.0%
Draw
28.9%
Away win
22.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Burnley 49.0% 2.04
Draw 28.9% 3.46
Stoke City 22.1% 4.53

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.7% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.3% 8.83
Over 1.5 66.4% 1.51
Under 1.5 33.6% 2.98
Over 2.5 39.0% 2.57
Under 2.5 61.0% 1.64
Over 3.5 19.0% 5.27
Under 3.5 81.0% 1.23
Over 4.5 7.8% 12.88
Under 4.5 92.2% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 43.8% 2.28
No 56.2% 1.78

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Burnley / Draw 77.9% 1.28
Burnley / Stoke City 71.1% 1.41
Draw / Stoke City 51.0% 1.96

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.3
8.2
3.8
1.1
0.2
0.0
1
14.0
13.3
5.3
1.5
0.3
0.1
2
10.3
8.8
3.7
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
4.8
4.1
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
1.7
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.