Tuesday 4 April 2017, 21:45
Turf Moor
Full time
41%
30%
29%
Home win
41.4%
Draw
29.9%
Away win
28.7%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Draw | 29.9% | 3.35 | — | — |
| Stoke City | 28.7% | 3.48 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88.9% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.1% | 9.00 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 39.6% | 2.52 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 19.5% | 5.14 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.0% | 12.45 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 92.0% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
| No | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Burnley / Stoke City | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Draw / Stoke City | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.1
|
9.6
|
5.2
|
1.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
12.3
|
13.9
|
6.6
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.2
|
8.3
|
4.2
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
3.5
|
3.5
|
1.8
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.1
|
1.1
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.