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Sunday 22 April 2018, 15:30 bet365 Stadium Full time
1–1
HT 1–0
30% 32% 38%
Home win
30.2%
Draw
32.1%
Away win
37.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City 30.2% 3.31
Draw 32.1% 3.12
Burnley 37.7% 2.65

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.1% 1.16
Under 0.5 13.9% 7.17
Over 1.5 61.0% 1.64
Under 1.5 39.0% 2.56
Over 2.5 33.1% 3.02
Under 2.5 66.9% 1.50
Over 3.5 14.8% 6.75
Under 3.5 85.2% 1.17
Over 4.5 5.5% 18.07
Under 4.5 94.5% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.3% 2.42
No 58.7% 1.70

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City / Draw 62.3% 1.60
Stoke City / Burnley 67.9% 1.47
Draw / Burnley 69.8% 1.43

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.9
13.5
7.8
2.8
0.8
0.2
1
11.6
14.3
7.3
2.6
0.7
0.2
2
5.8
6.4
3.4
1.2
0.3
0.1
3
1.8
2.0
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.