Thursday 19 April 2018, 21:45
Turf Moor
Full time
24%
30%
46%
Home win
24.2%
Draw
29.9%
Away win
45.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 24.2% | 4.14 | — | — |
| Draw | 29.9% | 3.34 | — | — |
| Chelsea | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 12.1% | 8.28 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 35.2% | 2.84 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 37.2% | 2.69 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 17.7% | 5.66 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.0% | 14.22 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 93.0% | 1.08 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
| No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Burnley / Chelsea | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Draw / Chelsea | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
12.1
|
14.0
|
9.7
|
4.2
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
| 1 |
9.1
|
13.7
|
8.4
|
3.7
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
| 2 |
4.3
|
5.6
|
3.7
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
1.3
|
1.6
|
1.1
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Chelsea
1-1
Burnley
Nov 2025
Burnley
0-2
Chelsea
Mar 2024
Chelsea
2-2
Burnley
Oct 2023
Burnley
1-4
Chelsea
Mar 2022
Burnley
0-4
Chelsea
Nov 2021
Chelsea
1-1
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.