Saturday 14 April 2018, 14:30
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
18%
26%
56%
Home win
18.0%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
56.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 18.0% | 5.55 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.6% | 3.90 | — | — |
| Chelsea | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.1% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.9% | 11.26 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 28.0% | 3.57 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 24.3% | 4.12 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.9% | 9.17 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.1% | 1.12 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
| No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
| Southampton / Chelsea | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Draw / Chelsea | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.9
|
13.0
|
11.4
|
6.3
|
2.6
|
0.9
|
| 1 |
6.2
|
12.1
|
9.5
|
5.3
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
| 2 |
2.9
|
4.8
|
4.0
|
2.2
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
0.8
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Chelsea
4-0
Southampton
Dec 2024
Southampton
1-5
Chelsea
Feb 2023
Chelsea
0-1
Southampton
Aug 2022
Southampton
2-1
Chelsea
Apr 2022
Southampton
0-6
Chelsea
Oct 2021
Chelsea
3-1
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.