Saturday 16 December 2017, 17:00
Emirates Stadium
Full time
75%
16%
9%
Home win
75.5%
Draw
16.0%
Away win
8.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Draw | 16.0% | 6.25 | — | — |
| Newcastle | 8.5% | 11.74 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.8% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.2% | 23.83 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 15.7% | 6.37 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
| No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal / Draw | 91.5% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Arsenal / Newcastle | 84.0% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Draw / Newcastle | 24.5% | 4.08 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.2
|
2.4
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.1
|
7.6
|
2.7
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.0
|
9.0
|
3.4
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
10.1
|
7.6
|
2.9
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
6.4
|
4.8
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.2
|
2.4
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Arsenal
1-0
Newcastle
Sep 2025
Newcastle
1-2
Arsenal
May 2025
Arsenal
1-0
Newcastle
Nov 2024
Newcastle
1-0
Arsenal
Feb 2024
Arsenal
4-1
Newcastle
Nov 2023
Newcastle
1-0
Arsenal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.