Sunday 18 September 2016, 16:15
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
35%
30%
36%
Home win
34.9%
Draw
29.6%
Away win
35.5%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 34.9% | 2.86 | — | — |
| Draw | 29.6% | 3.38 | — | — |
| Swansea | 35.5% | 2.82 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.3% | 9.70 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 31.1% | 3.21 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 21.1% | 4.73 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.0% | 11.12 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 91.0% | 1.10 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
| No | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Southampton / Swansea | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Draw / Swansea | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.3
|
10.5
|
6.6
|
2.6
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
10.3
|
14.0
|
7.8
|
3.1
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
6.5
|
7.7
|
4.6
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
2.5
|
3.0
|
1.8
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.7
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.