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Tuesday 8 May 2018, 21:45 Liberty Stadium Full time
38% 31% 31%
Home win
38.1%
Draw
30.7%
Away win
31.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea 38.1% 2.62
Draw 30.7% 3.25
Southampton 31.2% 3.21

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.0% 1.14
Under 0.5 12.0% 8.34
Over 1.5 65.1% 1.54
Under 1.5 34.9% 2.87
Over 2.5 37.5% 2.67
Under 2.5 62.5% 1.60
Over 3.5 17.9% 5.60
Under 3.5 82.1% 1.22
Over 4.5 7.1% 14.01
Under 4.5 92.9% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 44.9% 2.23
No 55.1% 1.82

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea / Draw 68.9% 1.45
Swansea / Southampton 69.3% 1.44
Draw / Southampton 61.9% 1.62

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.0
10.7
5.9
2.0
0.5
0.1
1
12.2
14.2
6.9
2.3
0.6
0.1
2
7.6
7.8
4.0
1.4
0.4
0.1
3
2.9
3.0
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.