Saturday 28 April 2018, 17:00
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
42%
27%
30%
Home win
42.2%
Draw
27.4%
Away win
30.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.4% | 3.65 | — | — |
| Bournemouth | 30.4% | 3.28 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.1% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.9% | 12.71 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 27.3% | 3.66 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 12.8% | 7.79 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| No | 46.0% | 2.18 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Southampton / Bournemouth | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Draw / Bournemouth | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.9
|
7.8
|
5.1
|
2.0
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
9.6
|
13.1
|
7.4
|
2.9
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.5
|
8.9
|
5.3
|
2.1
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
3.6
|
4.3
|
2.6
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
1.3
|
1.6
|
0.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Southampton
1-3
Bournemouth
Sep 2024
Bournemouth
3-1
Southampton
Apr 2023
Southampton
0-1
Bournemouth
Oct 2022
Bournemouth
0-1
Southampton
Jul 2020
Bournemouth
0-2
Southampton
Sep 2019
Southampton
1-3
Bournemouth
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.