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Tuesday 31 January 2017, 21:45 Liberty Stadium Full time
34% 28% 38%
Home win
33.7%
Draw
27.9%
Away win
38.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea 33.7% 2.96
Draw 27.9% 3.58
Southampton 38.4% 2.61

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.8% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.2% 12.15
Over 1.5 73.9% 1.35
Under 1.5 26.1% 3.83
Over 2.5 48.0% 2.08
Under 2.5 52.0% 1.92
Over 3.5 26.3% 3.81
Under 3.5 73.8% 1.36
Over 4.5 12.2% 8.22
Under 4.5 87.8% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.5% 1.87
No 46.5% 2.15

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Swansea / Draw 61.6% 1.62
Swansea / Southampton 72.1% 1.39
Draw / Southampton 66.3% 1.51

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.2
9.3
6.8
3.0
1.0
0.3
1
8.6
13.3
8.4
3.8
1.3
0.3
2
5.8
7.8
5.3
2.4
0.8
0.2
3
2.4
3.3
2.2
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.