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Saturday 10 September 2016, 17:00 Emirates Stadium Full time
Arsenal
2–1
HT 1–1
Southampton
27% 42% 30%
Home win
27.4%
Draw
42.2%
Away win
30.5%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 27.4% 3.65 — —
Draw 42.2% 2.37 — —
Southampton 30.5% 3.28 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 70.9% 1.41 — —
Under 0.5 29.1% 3.43 — —
Over 1.5 36.5% 2.74 — —
Under 1.5 63.5% 1.57 — —
Over 2.5 13.3% 7.51 — —
Under 2.5 86.7% 1.15 — —
Over 3.5 3.9% 25.69 — —
Under 3.5 96.1% 1.04 — —
Over 4.5 0.9% 107.18 — —
Under 4.5 99.1% 1.01 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 22.4% 4.46 — —
No 77.6% 1.29 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 69.5% 1.44 — —
Arsenal / Southampton 57.8% 1.73 — —
Draw / Southampton 72.6% 1.38 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
29.1
17.9
6.1
1.3
0.2
0.0
1
16.5
11.9
3.7
0.8
0.1
0.0
2
5.2
3.4
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
1.0
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Arsenal
L D W
Southampton
D L D

Head to head

May 2025 Southampton 1-2 Arsenal Oct 2024 Arsenal 3-1 Southampton Apr 2023 Arsenal 3-3 Southampton Oct 2022 Southampton 1-1 Arsenal Apr 2022 Southampton 1-0 Arsenal Dec 2021 Arsenal 3-0 Southampton

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.